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2026-11-09 15:11:41 Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that China's e-commerce sector is entering a structurally low-growth phase, while competition remains intense. The broker currently forecasts that e-commerce platform GMV will record a CAGR of only 3.2% between 2026 and 2030, with growth further slowing to 2.6% in 2030. Amid weak consumption and limited room for further online penetration gains, platforms are increasingly relying on capturing market share from rivals to achieve growth, while also needing to increase spending on traffic acquisition, subsidies and merchant incentives to defend their positions. This implies that growth will become more difficult to achieve and defensive costs will continue to rise. The broker forecasts industry GMV growth of about RMB3.342 trillion between 2026 and 2030, of which PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) and Douyin together will contribute around 73%. It forecasts BABA-W (09988.HK)'s GMV market share to decline from 33% in 2026 to 30.3% in 2030, while PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) will rise from 22.3% to 24.3%, and Douyin from 17.7% to 19.7%. Morgan Stanley downgraded PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) and MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) from Overweight to Equalweight. It maintained Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US) as its top pick with an Overweight rating, citing optimism over its AI differentiation and cloud business exposure, and believing it is the best AI play among Chinese internet companies. Its stock preference ranking is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US) > Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) > PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) > MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) > KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) > JD-SW (09618.HK). Among them, the US target price for JD.com, Inc. (JD.US) was lowered from USD25 to USD23 with an Underweight rating; PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) was cut from USD129 to USD90; Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) had its US target price raised from USD52 to USD53 with an Overweight rating; TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) was cut from HKD24 to HKD17 with an Overweight rating; KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) was lowered from HKD40 to HKD31 with an Equalweight rating; MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was reduced from HKD110 to HKD90; and Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS.US) was cut from USD16 to USD12 with an Equalweight rating. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US)'s US target price was maintained at USD180. (gc/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |