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2026-11-09 11:22:45 UBS issued a report lowering the TP for JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK) by 41.5% from HKD65 to HKD38, while maintaining its Buy rating. The bank cut the target P/E for the copper business from 12x to 8x based on its 2027 forecast, and lowered its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 15%, respectively. The revisions mainly reflect more conservative assumptions for average sulfuric acid selling prices and long-term contract treatment charges, as well as declining earnings visibility. The bank said its constructive view on copper prices remains unchanged, believing electrification, power grid investment and AI-related power infrastructure are driving copper prices into a structurally higher range, while declining ore grades, lengthy project development cycles and constrained capital expenditure are limiting supply responses. However, JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK)'s hybrid business model spanning mining, smelting and futures hedging means higher copper prices cannot be translated into earnings as directly and sustainably as upstream-focused miners with stronger growth. Quarterly earnings also remain affected by regional sulfuric acid pricing, copper concentrate procurement, changes in treatment charges, timing differences between futures and physical profit recognition, and non-recurring investment gains. Within its coverage universe, the bank prefers the valuation and high-grade resources of CMOC (03993.HK), as well as the gold exposure of ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK), while remaining relatively cautious on the earnings visibility of JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK). (da/)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |