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M Stanley Forecasts XIAOMI-W 3Q Smartphone Shipments and GM to Remain Strong, Maintains Overweight Rating
2026-11-02 15:51:59
Morgan Stanley published a research report forecasting that XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) will deliver strong smartphone shipment and gross margin performance in 3Q, as elevating costs are being passed on to consumers. The ASP of Xiaomi smartphones was projected to notch a historical high in 3Q. Industry data showed the group's smartphone shipments numbered 30.7 million units in 3Q, 11% above the broker's expectations.

On the back of higher ASP and resilient shipment volumes, Morgan Stanley believed Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin could exceed the 8.5% recorded in 2Q, outperforming market expectations. The broker lately forecast total revenue for 3Q to exceed RMB100 billion. However, EV were estimated to widen due to increased AI investment and costs related to new product launches, while recurring earnings may miss.

The broker estimated 3Q EV deliveries will breach 100,000 units, while 4Q deliveries will surpass 150,000 units. EV losses are highly likely to narrow as deliveries increase rapidly. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on XIAOMI-W with a TP of HKD33.
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