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2026-10-13 13:58:39 Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that consumer sectors in mainland China and Hong Kong are facing diverging demand trends, competition, weather disruptions and cost pressures, while outlining the 3Q performance outlook for major companies. Overall, the October Golden Week effect was generally weak, reflecting subdued consumption sentiment, with developments during the Singles' Day online shopping festival set to become a key observation point. The sector rating is "Equalweight" (In-Line). The broker noted that in the home appliance sector, domestic demand remains under pressure after subsidy effects faded, weak air-conditioner demand persists, and raw material pressure remains. Product mix, operational efficiency and overseas growth are key focuses. The catering sector was dragged down by adverse summer weather. Same-store sales growth of YUM CHINA (09987.HK) is expected to improve sequentially and turn positive in September and the early-October Golden Week holiday. Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA.US) is expected to see same-store sales growth turn positive in 3Q, reaching high single digits in September. National Day holiday performance was slightly pressured, but there remains upside potential for 4Q forecasts. Sportswear sales updates for 3Q are expected to slow further from 2Q, with weak National Day sales and a cautious 4Q outlook, while premium brands may continue to outperform. In cosmetics, Singles' Day is expected to be a catalyst for some companies, with GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK) and MAO GEPING (01318.HK) likely to deliver mildly positive surprises. Dairy growth is expected to remain healthy. Beer and beverages were affected by softer summer demand and competition. Demand for baijiu remained generally weak amid ongoing destocking, though Moutai may outperform peers. Condiment makers faced margin pressure from softer catering demand and rising raw material costs. On individual stocks, LI NING (02331.HK) may see a mildly negative surprise in its 3Q sales update, with rising risk of further cuts to its low-single-digit sales growth target. ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK) may deliver a mildly positive surprise in its 3Q sales update, with premium brands providing some downside protection. MIDEA GROUP (00300.HK) is expected to report a 3.5% decline in 3Q revenue and about a 5.4% drop in recurring net profit, though reported net profit is expected to rise more than 20% YoY after including fair value gains from its stake in CXMT. HAIER SMARTHOME (06690.HK) is expected to post high-single-digit revenue decline in 3Q (around 8% according to the broker's model), while recurring profit is expected to fall about 20% YoY. BUD APAC (01876.HK) is expected to record a 7% decline in 3Q organic sales and a 19% drop in organic EBITDA. EASTROC (09980.HK) and HAITIAN FLAV (03288.HK) are expected to deliver soft 3Q results. CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK)'s operational update for the second fiscal quarter ended September is expected to be broadly in line with expectations. POP MART (09992.HK)'s 3Q sales update is also expected to be broadly in line with expectations, with mainland China momentum stabilizing or slightly improving sequentially, narrower overseas declines, and overseas sales expected to resume QoQ growth in 4Q. (da/ad)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |