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CPCA: High Oil Prices Forecast to Keep Suppressing ICEV Demand in Oct, Accelerating EV Replacement
2026-10-12 16:41:54 In the national passenger vehicle market in October, persistently high international oil prices and elevated vehicle usage costs will keep consumption of internal combustion engines vehicles (ICEVs) weaker than expected, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), projected. Short-term support will come from National Day auto shows, local subsidies, and automakers' peak-season promotions, while medium- to long-term constraints stem from weak household income confidence and wait-and-see sentiment caused by intense price competition. On the policy front, trade-in subsidies this year continue to gain traction, with subsidy volumes expected to show a "low in the first half and high in the second half" trend, in sharp contrast to the gradual withdrawal of subsidies in October last year, which will stabilize the auto market. On exports, trade pressure in the EU market is mounting, and the trend of slowing growth will gradually emerge. At the same time, three demographic trends are irreversible: declining marriage rates, delayed marriage age, and accelerated aging. Growth drivers in the auto market are shifting from "first-time purchases by newlyweds" to "replacement and additional purchases + new energy upgrades + age-friendly mobility". In terms of consumption characteristics, high oil prices continue to suppress demand for ICEVs, while EV replacement is accelerating. New energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rates remain at a high level above 65%. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |