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| HSI1 | 24,271.20 | +59.85 | 162.63B |
| HSCEI1 | 8,168.57 | +20.70 | 49.87B |
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2026-10-12 14:16:32 Goldman Sachs published a report on HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK), which will announce its 3Q results on October 27. The broker forecast the broker's underlying PBT at USD10.4 billion, up 14% YoY and 1% QoQ, 2% above market expectations. The broker estimated banking NII to be supported by continued balance sheet expansion and a higher interest rate environment, while credit costs should remain broadly stable. However, non-banking NII was estimated to slow after a strong performance in 2Q, while investment banking, debt capital markets and equity capital markets revenue were exceptionally strong in the previous quarter. HSBC HOLDINGS's banking NII remains the market focus, and was expected to ascend 3% QoQ, backed by higher end-of-quarter rates, more calendar days and continued balance sheet growth. Following recent Fed rate hikes, the interest rate outlook has become increasingly constructive, while a steeper yield curve should support structural hedge reinvestment yields and balance sheet repricing. The broker also expected loan growth to remain healthy, with Hong Kong system loan growth continuing to improve. Reflecting a more favorable rate environment, the broker raised its banking NII forecasts for 2026-28 by 0.3%, 1% and 1%, now up to 3% above market expectations. Investors are expected to focus on the bank's 2026 banking NII guidance and whether management sees room for further upward adjustment under a stronger rate outlook and solid loan growth. Capital and shareholder returns remain key focuses. The broker assumed HSBC HOLDINGS to announce a USD500 million buyback in 3Q, lower than USD1 billion in 2Q, reflecting continued loan growth and the negative other comprehensive income impact from higher rates and a steeper yield curve, which the broker estimated could reduce the CET1 ratio by around 20 bps. Goldman Sachs adjusted its underlying EPS forecasts for HSBC HOLDINGS for 2026-29 by between -0.7% and +0.6%, reflecting a more favorable rate environment and stronger loan growth, offset by higher operating expenses from increased investment in growth initiatives and technology to support revenue expansion. As a result, the TP for HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) was slightly lowered from HKD193 to HKD192, while the TP for HSBC (HSBA.L) shares listed in the UK remained unchanged at GBX1,860. The rating was maintained at Buy, and earnings forecasts for 2030 and 2031 were introduced. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |