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CLSA Estimates MO Casinos' 3Q EBITDA to Sink 11% YoY, Favors GALAXY ENT, Upgrades SJM HOLDINGS to Hold
2026-10-12 11:22:24
Macau's gaming industry was mainly dampened by a 3.8% YoY decline in industry GGR, and forecast the industry's EBITDA for 3Q26 to fall 11% YoY to USD1.839 billion, CLSA said in a research report. However, VIP win rates during the quarter were above normal levels, which should help ease margin headwinds. The broker viewed this as temporary support.

The broker maintained a Neutral view for the next six months, believing that there is limited room for margin expansion amid only mild GGR growth.

On individual stocks, the broker's top pick was GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), with rating Outperform and being the only sector top pick, with a TP of HKD39.7. Following the recent share pullback, the broker upgraded SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) from Underperform to Hold. It also cut its EBITDA forecast for SJM HOLDINGS this year by 3% and widened its net loss forecast for this year from the previous HKD159 million to HKD247 million, while maintaining its TP at HKD1.4.

The broker said business growth at Grand Lisboa Palace and deleveraging remain the two key focuses for SJM HOLDINGS. The broker did not expect SJM HOLDINGS to pay any dividends during FY2026-28. In addition, the TP for Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO.US) was lowered from USD5.3 to USD5, while the Outperform rating was maintained.
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