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2026-10-09 11:24:47 G Sachs published a research report stating that Macau's gaming industry GGR was broadly stable QoQ and fell 4% YoY in 3Q, but benefited from a seasonal rebound in non-gaming revenue during the summer, a stabilizing competitive environment and cost controls. The broker expected industry EBITDA to rebound 5% QoQ to USD1.95 billion, while declining 9% YoY. EBITDA margin based on gross revenue was expected to bottom out and recover to 21.8%, compared with 20.9% in 2Q. The broker noted that GGR in 3Q remained soft, mainly due to diversion of gaming spending during the World Cup period; international air ticket prices rising 30% to 40% YoY before starting to normalize in August and September; as well as negative sentiment stemming from stock market corrections, tighter capital controls in Mainland China and stricter tax supervision on offshore financial investments. SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) benefited from the return of leisure and family travelers, with gaming revenue market share expanding 1.4 ppts and 1.2 ppts QoQ to 25.3% and 21.8%, respectively. Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO.US) and SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) saw market share decline 1.5 ppts and 0.8 ppts QoQ to 13.4% and 9.4%, respectively, while WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) and MGM CHINA (02282.HK) maintained broadly stable market share. The broker expected SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)'s 3Q EBITDA to rise 28% QoQ to USD548 million, the strongest among the six operators under coverage. GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)'s EBITDA was expected to increase 8% QoQ to HKD3.66 billion. Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO.US), however, was expected to record a 12% QoQ decline in EBITDA to USD267 million due to pressure from operating leverage. The broker maintained Buy ratings on GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK), WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO.US), with TP at HKD51, HKD19.5, HKD8.1 and USD8, respectively. MGM CHINA (02282.HK) was also rated Buy with TP at HKD16, while SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) was rated Neutral with TP at HKD1.8. The broker said sector valuation remained attractive, with EV/EBITDA retreating to around 7x and average dividend yield exceeding 6%. More meaningful re-rating would still depend on the timing and magnitude of upward revisions to GGR and earnings forecasts.(da/u)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |