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HSBC Research: CN Mortgage Interest Subsidy Small in Scale but Bank-friendly; CCB/ ABC/ ICBC/ PSBC Seen as Key Beneficiaries
2026-10-02 17:26:37
China's MOF, PBOC and NFRA jointly promulgated a nationwide mortgage interest subsidy scheme, HSBC Global Investment Research mentioned in a research report. The broker interpreted the plan as small-scale, targeted and bank-friendly, helping support housing demand while shifting the cost burden to fiscal spending rather than banks' NIM.

The broker projected banks with larger mortgage exposure to benefit more. Based on industry market share, CCB (00939.HK), ICBC (01398.HK) and ABC (01288.HK) have the largest mortgage books. Within the broker's coverage universe, PSBC (01658.HK) and CCB had the highest mortgage loan ratios in 1H26 at 22.8% and 20%, respectively.

The broker believed the short-term earnings impact may be limited, but the policy direction bodes well for banks. It maintained Buy ratings on the H shares of CCB, ABC and ICBC, with TP at HKD12.5, HKD7.4 and HKD8.6, respectively. The H shares of PSBC were maintained at Hold with a TP of HKD5.5.
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