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| HSI1 | 23,972.29 | -640.98 | 145.80B |
| HSCEI1 | 8,030.54 | -189.54 | 44.29B |
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2026-10-02 13:52:15 JPM released a research report stating that the State Council executive meeting discussed strengthening and enhancing the effectiveness of macro policies and promoting effective investment. The government will study and introduce policy measures aimed at stabilizing the property market and promoting employment and income growth. The bank outlined four stimulus scenarios and corresponding stock selection strategies, while maintaining an Overweight position on Chinese equities within emerging market/Asia allocation. Its base-case targets by end-2026 are 100 points for the MSCI China Index and 5,200 points for the CSI 300 Index, based on market expectations of EPS YoY growth of 14% and 25%, respectively. The bank noted that the base-case scenario involves 癒禮catch-up癒穡 fiscal execution within the existing budget, which is supportive rather than expansionary, focusing on the 癒禮Six Networks癒穡. Planned investment in 2026 alone exceeds RMB7 trillion, while total investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at RMB23 trillion to RMB26 trillion. Related companies are expected to convert policies into orders, revenue and earnings over the coming quarters. In the upside scenario, if large-scale stimulus similar to Sep 2024 and focused on property and consumption is introduced, high-beta consumer, property and building materials stocks are expected to see strong rotation. If monetary easing becomes the main focus, historical back-testing shows that micro-cap and small-cap stocks outperform over a three-month period, with healthcare, information technology and materials sectors leading. In the downside scenario, if fiscal implementation falls short, the market may shift toward defensive allocations with low price-to-book ratios, high dividends and stable cash flow. The bank stated that stimulus expectations over the next six months may revolve around three key events: the Fifth Plenary Session in Oct, the Central Economic Work Conference in early to mid-Dec, and the National People's Congress and CPPCC meetings in early Mar 2027. The bank is positive on the Mainland AI supply chain, including ILUVATAR COREX (09903.HK). For investors seeking diversified allocation, among H shares, the bank's top picks are MEITUAN-W (03690.HK), BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK), CICC (03908.HK), INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK), BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) and CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK). (da/ad)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |