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G Sachs: CN Mortgage Interest Subsidies for Property Sector Narrower Than Expected, Foreseen to be Mildly Boosting Demand
2026-09-30 16:18:46
The nationwide housing mortgage interest subsidy program is limited to new commercial mortgage loans for first-time homebuyers and does not apply to existing mortgage borrowers, Goldman Sachs said in a research report. The impact on existing mortgage borrowers will therefore be smaller than previously expected by the broker and the market.

For the property market, the policy helps affordability and pricing, but given the narrow eligibility threshold and limited subsidy period, the overall demand boost is expected to be mild rather than broad-based support.

Share prices of developers under the broker's coverage have rebounded an average of 16% from recent troughs since Sep 15, while MSCI China and CSI 300 dropped 1% and 2% respectively over the same period, possibly reflecting market expectations for stimulus policies. As policy support is narrower than expected, share prices may see short-term volatility.

The broker maintained Buy ratings on CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK), CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) and GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK), while maintaining Sell ratings on SEAZEN (01030.HK) and CHINA VANKE (02202.HK).

Stock | Investment Rating | TP

CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) | Buy | HKD16.8
CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) | Buy | HKD38.8
GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK) | Buy | HKD9.5
CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) | Buy | HKD1.85
SEAZEN (01030.HK) | Sell | HKD1.55
CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) | Sell | HKD2.5
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AASTOCKS Financial News
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