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| HSI1 | 24,642.51 | +132.42 | 177.48B |
| HSCEI1 | 8,216.84 | +51.06 | 51.28B |
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2026-09-28 15:33:25 JPMorgan spoke with large regional catering distributors in Central China ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, with the key conclusion being that consumer sentiment remains cautious. September only logged a modest improvement, driven by holiday demand and better weather, but overall growth still fell short of expectations, broadly consistent with the weak 2Q26 backdrop. Category bellwethers have the highest visibility, while most brands still face price competition and inventory overhangs. Promotional intensity remains elevated, and experts believe this is unlikely to ease in 2027. Bottled water and traditional beverage categories are increasingly saturated and are being replaced by new formats/products, while dairy products appear to be stabilizing after two years of decline, with LSD growth expected next year. Overall, distributors hold a bearish outlook for 2027. While market consensus expects a rebound, execution risks, ongoing price wars, and rising input costs point to widening earnings divergence and the need for continued selective stock picking. In beverages, competition remains intense, with NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK) showing relative resilience. Experts described July as the toughest month in 3Q, while sales improved in August and September. NONGFU SPRING’s total sales in 3Q are estimated to have recorded LDD YoY growth, slower than the pace in 1H. Growth in sweetened tea was also limited, while U-PRESID CHINA (00220.HK) competed aggressively for market share, and freshly made beverages mounted additional substitution pressure. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |