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HSBC Research: CN Online Gaming Growth Forecast Slowing Before Rebounding; Buy Reiterated on TENCENT, NTES and BILIBILI-W
2026-09-24 16:08:01
After accelerated growth in China's online gaming sector from 4Q25 to 1Q26, domestic gaming growth was estimated to slacken in 2H26, HSBC Global Investment Research said in a research report. However, the 2027 product pipeline was expected to entail better growth opportunities, while overseas markets remain a key growth driver with strategy shifts already underway.

The broker maintained Buy ratings on TENCENT (00700.HK), NTES (09999.HK) and BILIBILI-W (09626.HK), with respective TP at HKD655, HKD253 and HKD184.

In light of a high base and the lack of blockbuster new titles, PC games in the China domestic market may only post mild growth in 2H26. Nevertheless, lower distribution channel costs could cushion margins and earnings in the short term. The 2027 product pipeline could pave the way for better growth for some developers amid macro challenges.

BILIBILI-W (09626.HK) has the strongest gaming growth potential, on the back of an easier comparison base and a strong pipeline including "Three Kingdoms: The King's Road" and "Ragnarok Online 3". The broker foresaw NTES (09999.HK)'s total gaming revenue growth to accelerate from 8% in 2026 to 10% in 2027, supported by the global cross-platform launch of "ANANTA" in January 2027.

TENCENT (00700.HK) has a rich product pipeline, but due to its large base and sustained outperformance over the past two years, meaningful return to double-digit growth in 2027 would require potential new titles generating annual gross receipts exceeding RMB10 billion. The broker predicted its online gaming revenue to grow 6% in 2027.
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