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UBS: Reflation to Become Key Theme for CN Consumer Sector Next Yr
2026-09-24 15:04:38
UBS Investment Research noted that since 2Q26, oil price volatility and El Nino-related weather factors have shored up input costs for parts of the consumer sector. However, developments across multiple industries indicate that corporate pricing power and supply-demand dynamics are bettering progressively.

The researcher projected reflation to gradually become a key theme for China's consumer sector next year, while the market at this juncture is more focused on weak short-term earnings and inventory adjustments, potentially underestimating the reflation potential of certain consumer categories.

The researcher continued to favor category leaders with pricing power and structural growth drivers. As industry profitability improves, related companies should be best positioned to pass on higher costs and achieve earnings growth. UBS forecast that the China business earnings of some companies may face downside risks in 3Q26, affected by adverse weather conditions and persistent cost pressures.

It trimmed 2026-28 earnings forecasts for some beverage companies making baijiu, beer, freshly made tea drinks and ready-to-drink by 3-29%, while cutting TPs by 5-47%. It also turned more cautious on industry demand and the medium-term recovery outlook for the catering services sector.
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AASTOCKS Financial News
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