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UOB Kay Hian: Lithium Carbonate Prices Slump 20%+ in Sep; CATL Presents Buying Opportunity on Dip
2026-09-18 16:37:22
Battery-grade lithium carbonate futures slumped by more than 20% cumulatively in September to RMB124,000 per tonne, UOB Kay Hian said in a research report, attributing the decline to rumors that major battery manufacturers had scaled back production plans, while Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) adopted a broader inventory statistical methodology, resulting in a one-off adjustment that caused weekly inventory levels to surge from around 70,000 tonnes to 169,300 tonnes, dragging down the share prices of listed lithium miners.

The broker maintained its forecasts for CATL (03750.HK)'s net profit per gigawatt-hour for 2026-28 at RMB93.6 million, RMB95.6 million and RMB97.8 million, respectively. CATL's A-share price once hit a one-year trough, given reports that LI AUTO-W (02015.HK), XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) and XPENG-W (09868.HK) were expanding their battery sourcing channels.

However, the broker believed the market is overly concerned, noting that the company possesses strong moats in technology, reliability and branding, making the current weakness a buying opportunity. It maintained a Buy rating on the stock.

On the corporate front, GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)'s Cruiser 700 received more than 43,900 pre-orders within one hour. Several new vehicle models launched in September have already been priced in preparation for the National Day holiday sales peak. BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) reiterated plans to launch its first solid-state battery vehicle model in 2027, though the broker views 2027 as an engineering milestone rather than an earnings event and has not factored large-scale solid-state battery adoption into its forecasts.

The broker said its sector top picks are BYD COMPANY (01211.HK), GEELY AUTO (00175.HK), CATL (03750.HK) and MINTH GROUP (00425.HK), while recommending Sell on LI AUTO-W (02015.HK).
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