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G Sachs Cites Expert Forecast of Mid-term Supply Gap in CN Property Mkt; 2030 May Be Better Timing for Property Tax Rollout
2026-09-18 16:20:46
Goldman Sachs invited Ding Zuyu, Founder and Chairman of Shanghai Purui Digital Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd., as the third speaker in its 2026 China property expert conference call series yesterday (17th).

Ding forecast supply in the property market to remain broadly balanced in the short term, as developers rush to obtain construction/pre-sale permits before August 28. However, in light of reforms in the sales model, a notable supply shortage lasting 12-18 months was expected from March 2027, followed by around two years of gradual stabilization.

On the demand side, momentum from the peak sales season in 4Q26 was expected to continue, with primary home sales recovering YoY and secondary home transactions picking up, although some buyers remain cautious for now.

Once the anticipated supply vacuum period begins next year, secondary home supply was expected to partially offset the shortage in the primary market. Over the longer term, he predicted 2030 to be a year when prices and transaction volumes stabilize, and also a more suitable timing for the government to introduce a property tax.

Stock | Investment Rating | TP
CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) | Buy | HKD16.8
CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) | Buy | HKD38.8
GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK) | Buy | HKD9.5
CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) | Buy | HKD1.85
LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) | Neutral | HKD7.5
SEAZEN (01030.HK) | Sell | HKD1.55
CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) | Sell | HKD2.5
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