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Citi Says CN Property New Starts Area Decline Widens in Aug, Cuts Forecast for National Real Estate Development Investment
2026-09-16 11:58:33
China's property new starts area in August sank 30% YoY to 32 million square meters, marking the sharpest downfall since December 2022; completed floor area dropped 28% YoY, the steepest decline in 13 months; real estate development investment faded 25% YoY; residential sales value fell 12% YoY, while sales floor area dropped 16%, Citi said in a research report. The broker lowered its 2026 forecasts for national real estate development investment and new starts to decreases of 22.6% YoY and 28.1% YoY, respectively.

The market has partially priced in risks arising from policies promoting sales of completed homes. The broker's sector top picks are developers with strong balance sheets, low financing costs and ample recent land reserves, including CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK), CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), BEKE-W (02423.HK) (BEKE.US) and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK).
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