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M Stanley Downgrades JD LOGISTICS to Equalweight, Axes TP by 25% to HKD12.6
2026-09-15 10:55:40
Morgan Stanley issued a research report downgrading JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) from Overweight to Equalweight, while lowering its target price from HKD16.9 to HKD12.6, representing a 25% reduction. The target price corresponds to a 2027E PE of about 7.6x, below the domestic peer average of 10.8x, as shareholder returns are relatively weaker than domestic peers rated Overweight.

The broker noted that JD LOGISTICS' organic growth is slowing and fuel costs remain elevated, making earnings growth increasingly reliant on cost savings and providing limited support for further valuation re-rating.

The broker said that underlying revenue growth excluding JD NOW in 2Q recorded only a MSD increase, and it forecast the incremental contribution from JD NOW to fade as merger synergies normalize.

Morgan Stanley lowered its non-IFRS EPS forecasts for JD LOGISTICS for 2026-28 by 3%, 9% and 13%, respectively. Gross margin forecasts were also reduced by 0.3 ppts, 0.5 ppts and 0.6 ppts to 9.4%, 9.6% and 9.6%, respectively.
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