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2026-09-14 13:10:31 Citi released a research report stating that China announced the 15th Five-Year Plan for smart connected new energy vehicles last Friday (11th). Key targets include raising the NEV penetration rate for passenger vehicles to 70% by 2030 and commercial vehicles to 40%, while imposing strict energy consumption caps, including electricity consumption for pure electric vehicles of no more than 11.5 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers and average fuel consumption of no more than 3.3 liters per 100 kilometers, as well as promoting large-scale commercialization of autonomous driving. The bank believes the era of purely price-driven electrification competition has ended, and automakers must simultaneously master energy efficiency, in-house artificial intelligence and intelligent driving capabilities, as well as software-defined vehicle architecture. ADAS will shift from an optional feature to a regulatory benchmark, while autonomous driving safety must be quantifiably superior to human driving performance. In-vehicle AI and large language models have also officially been elevated to national strategic industry priorities. Citi expects the policy to promote industry consolidation, with future winners needing to simultaneously meet energy consumption compliance requirements, possess self-developed smart connectivity capabilities, and maintain sufficient capital for sustained research and development. The bank also summarized August insurance retail trends, noting that sales of China domestic NEV passenger vehicles rose 6% MoM but fell 11% YoY, in line with China Passenger Car Association trends. NEV penetration rose to 64.3%, with pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range penetration rates rising 1.7 ppts, falling 0.5 ppts, and falling 0.5 ppts MoM respectively, while internal combustion engine vehicle penetration declined to 35.7%. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), LI AUTO-W (02015.HK), GWMOTOR (02333.HK), CHERY AUTO (09973.HK), XPENG-W (09868.HK), and LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) all expanded their NEV market share MoM. The top five players in the industry held a combined market share of 52.9%, down 0.6 ppts MoM and down 4.8 ppts YoY. GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) led the China-branded internal combustion engine vehicle market with a 32.6% market share. Tesla China domestic insurance retail sales fell 12% YoY but rose 80% MoM to 50,047 vehicles, while wholesale volume reached 86,166 vehicles (up 4% YoY and down 8% MoM), with exports at 36,119 vehicles (up 39% YoY and down 46% MoM). Citi estimated passenger vehicle inventory at the end of August decreased by 0.1 month MoM to 2.9 months, with NEV inventory reduced to two months and internal combustion engine vehicle inventory reduced to 4.5 months. China-branded NEV market share remained high at 84.6% (down 1.9 ppts MoM), while US brands accounted for 11.5% (up 2.3 ppts MoM). (da/u)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |