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| HSI1 | 24,917.60 | +111.97 | 192.63B |
| HSCEI1 | 8,284.58 | +38.25 | 51.08B |
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2026-09-14 11:14:15 JPM released a research report stating that mainland authorities introduced a series of housing sales system reform measures on the 28th of last month. The broker expects the market will need time to digest the potential sales reset brought by the Chinese property sector's "post-pre-sale" era. Given the lack of clear catalysts at present, it believes Chinese property developers will Underperform in the coming months. JPM forecast that if the 828 policy is strictly implemented, Chinese property developers' contract sales in 2027 may decline by 20% to 30%. Assuming profit margins remain unchanged, earnings forecasts for 2029 may see a similar decline. When the sector's price-to-book ratio falls back to trough levels, share prices may face potential downside of about 10% to 20%. The broker maintained its view that tier-one mainland cities will see a mild stabilization this year. It estimates that under the 828 policy, developers' cash collection from pre-sales will be delayed by more than 12 months, while project internal rates of return may fall from about 15% to around 5%, and property development profit margins are expected to decline by 1 to 2 ppts. If land costs decline, project profit margins may still have upside potential. JPM listed CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK) and BEKE-W (02423.HK) (BEKE.US) as its top picks. The broker is also positive on CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), as its recurring business is expected to support revenue, although the TP was cut from HKD44 to HKD40, with rating maintained at Overweight. The broker downgraded LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) from Overweight to Neutral, while TP were lowered from HKD9 and HKD2.05 to HKD5.6 and HKD1.18, respectively. It believes the re-rating of the Chinese property sector requires more supporting evidence. (gc/ad)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |