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2026-09-14 10:55:30 UBS Global Economics and Strategy Research believes the risk-reward profile for gold prices through year-end is gradually tilting to the upside, supported by continued gold purchases by official sectors, improving seasonal demand and Chinese investment activity. China increased its gold holdings by about 20 tonnes in August, bringing cumulative purchases this year to about 80 tonnes. UBS said that even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, gold prices may retreat in the short term due to the impact of real interest rates and USD trends, but the downside is expected to be limited and the overall recovery trend may remain intact. Seasonal physical demand is expected to improve, while institutional and official-sector investors seeking to establish strategic positions may become more active when prices are lower. On the other hand, if rates are ultimately left unchanged, investors are likely to chase gains in gold prices, especially if the decision is viewed as increasing the risk of policy mistakes or reigniting market concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence. In such a scenario, easing short-term rate pressure would combine with longer-term diversification rationales, potentially resulting in stronger upside for gold prices than the expected downside under a rate-hike scenario. UBS noted that Chinese investment demand is gradually recovering, while the approach of India's peak gold demand season is expected to provide seasonal support for the gold market in 4Q26. (ha/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |