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2026-09-04 16:15:26 HSBC Global Investment Research issued a research report saying it has turned more cautious on global container shipping stocks, noting that the sector has undergone a significant re-rating this year, with average cumulative gains of about 33%, while forward price-to-book ratios have returned to near long-term normal levels. The bank said positive factors from short-term earnings upside have largely been reflected in share prices. Recent momentum has also been weakening, with freight rates on Asia-Europe routes showing signs of slowing, in line with increased traffic through the Suez Canal and the seasonal slack season ahead of China's National Day Golden Week. The broker believes frictions such as route diversions, port congestion, trade imbalances, weather conditions and canal restrictions are becoming more structural in nature. Freight rates may remain above historical levels in the short term, but as Red Sea shipping routes gradually normalize, mean reversion is becoming more apparent. Coupled with a substantial wave of new vessel deliveries, the market is shifting from "disruption-driven tightness" to "tight but increasingly fragile". HSBC Global Investment Research estimates that new vessel deliveries from next year to 2029 will be equivalent to about 37% of the existing fleet. It forecasts nominal fleet growth of about 9% annually in 2027-2028 and expects industry profit to peak in 3Q26 before starting to decline in 4Q26. Its full-year earnings forecasts remain broadly unchanged for now, but its 2027-2028 forecasts are below market expectations. HSBC Global Investment Research downgraded OOIL (00316.HK) and COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) from "Buy" to "Reduce", citing stretched valuations and slowing freight rate momentum after the third quarter. Their target prices were lowered from HKD184 and HKD20.3 to HKD130 and HKD14.4, respectively. The broker maintained a "Hold" rating and HKD41 target price on SITC (01308.HK), saying its fundamentals remain industry-leading but valuation is expensive. (gc/a)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |