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| HSI1 | 26,009.46 | +310.97 | 257.28B |
| HSCEI1 | 8,634.34 | +86.50 | 89.85B |
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2026-08-21 14:39:47 HSBC Global Investment Research issued a report on POP MART (09992.HK), of which 2Q revenue sank 9.3% QoQ, below the broker's expectations, owing to a steeper-than-expected QoQ decline in overseas markets and further slowdown in the China market. Sales of the Labubu IP in 1H dropped 7% YoY and 52% HoH, dragging down the group's revenue growth by 11 ppts to 24%. The broker noted that market focus has shifted from the pace of Labubu's slowdown to when its sales will bottom out and the corresponding earnings trough. The broker assumed Labubu sales will remain at 1H levels, while sales of other IPs will see mild HoH growth in 2H. In view of this, the broker trimmed its 2026 revenue forecast to a 7% YoY downfall, vs the previous forecast of 6% YoY growth. The 2026 net profit forecast was slashed by 18% to RMB10.452 billion, while the net profit margin forecast was lowered to 30% from the previous 32% forecast, compared with 29% in 1H, to reflect greater-than-expected operating deleverage in overseas markets. After the 2026 restructuring, the broker maintained its 2026-28 revenue/net profit CAGR forecasts at about 16% and 20% respectively, but lowered its 2027 and 2028 net profit forecasts by 16% and 18% respectively. The broker estimated POP MART's RMB2-5 billion share buyback plan and approximately RMB14 billion in net cash provide stronger room for shareholder returns, helping support the share price. The TP was axed 19% from HKD168.9 to HKD136.5. The broker opined the market is reflecting the Labubu restructuring factor, but visibility for sustainable earnings recovery remains insufficient to turn more positive, and it maintained a Hold rating. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |