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2026-07-31 15:32:02 CICC published a report expecting AIA (01299.HK)'s value of new business (VONB) to grow YoY by 14%/12% in 1H26 on actual exchange rate and constant exchange rate bases, respectively. Operating profit is expected to rise 9% YoY on an actual exchange rate basis, while operating EPS is forecast to increase 11% YoY. The broker expects seasonal moderation in the growth of AIA's mainland China business, though quarterly growth momentum remains solid. As the mainland insurance industry is expected to see notable acceleration in growth in 2Q-3Q 2025, AIA China癒礎s new business growth in 1H26 is expected to slow compared with 1Q26, although growth is still anticipated in 2Q26. In addition, unlike many mainland Chinese peers, AIA China is expected to deliver strong performance not only in savings-type insurance products, but also to show sustained recovery signs in protection-type business, potentially benefiting from continued active recruitment and productivity among agency channel personnel. The broker expects AIA Hong Kong's business growth to face pressure on a high comparison base during the quarter. Due to the high base in 2Q and 3Q 2025 caused by factors such as product transition, AIA Hong Kong's new business growth in 2Q26 is expected to come under pressure, with some pressure likely to persist into 3Q26. Following the implementation of certain regulations related to cross-border stock trading and cross-border bank account opening, Mainland Chinese Visitors (MCVs) are now required to complete additional compliance procedures during the insurance purchase process in Hong Kong. The broker expects the current negative impact on mainland tourists' willingness to purchase insurance in Hong Kong to remain limited, though further attention should be paid to subsequent regulatory policies and demand trends. CICC maintained its Outperform rating on AIA, while keeping its 2026/2027 earnings forecasts largely unchanged and maintaining its TP at HKD105.7. (ha/u)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |