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2026-07-24 10:59:01 G Sachs published a research report maintaining its forecast for Brent crude oil at USD80 per barrel in 4Q26, assuming geopolitical tensions ease during the quarter, while emphasizing that new upside price risks have recently emerged. The report noted that the Houthi armed group claimed attacks on two oil tankers passing through the Red Sea, while the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused Kazakhstan's exports to decline again, further skewing the bank's short-term oil price risk outlook to the upside. Over the past month, oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait averaged close to 9 million barrels per day. Of this, nearly 4 million barrels per day could face difficulties being rerouted if shipping disruptions simultaneously affect the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, oil loading volumes at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Red Sea port remained stable over the past seven days at a high level of around 5 million barrels per day. G Sachs expects New York oil futures to average USD76 per barrel in 4Q26. Looking ahead to 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the bank forecasts average Brent and New York crude oil prices at USD75 and USD70 per barrel respectively, while maintaining its projection for an average supply surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027 unchanged. The forecast incorporates an upward revision to UAE production and a downward revision to Russian output. Considering that global strategic inventories may reach 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, alongside price sensitivity of US shale oil and supply disruption factors providing downside support, G Sachs expects Brent crude prices to remain above around USD67 to USD69 per barrel. (gc/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |