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2026-07-20 13:16:49 Moonshot AI launched its new-generation 2.8T-parameter native multimodal model Kimi K3 last Friday (17th), CLSA published a research report stating. The model possesses Fable 5/GPT-5.6 Sol-level capabilities in coding, agent tasks and knowledge work. K3's API pricing jumped into the charging range of US frontier models, with input/output fees at USD3/USD15 per million tokens respectively, representing spikes of 3.2x/3.8x over K2.6 and 2.1x/3.4x over GLM 5.2. The pricing is equivalent to 60% and 30% of GPT-5.6 Sol and Fable 5 respectively. However, the broker cited early developer feedback and evaluations showing that K3's cost per task is similar to or even higher than GPT-5.6 Sol, while deployment requirements are demanding, potentially limiting short-term monetization capability. CLSA expected K3 to drive more Chinese laboratories to launch 2T+ parameter models over the next 12 months, including BABA-W (09988.HK)'s Qwen 3.8, MINIMAX-W (00100.HK), DeepSeek, and Z.AI (02513.HK)'s next-generation GLM model adopting a new architecture. CLSA believed K3 accelerated global API price discovery, with pricing pressure on GPT-5.6 Sol/Fable 5 potentially greater than that on domestic peers. However, the overall pricing direction remains reasonable, with intelligence capability and underlying costs being the key driving factors. CLSA cited the roadmap presented by Z.AI management during yesterday's (19th) conference call, stating that GLM-5.3 incremental upgrades will be launched in the near term to enhance real-world coding capabilities through higher-quality data, stronger post-training and faster infrastructure. The next-generation model will adopt a new architecture aimed at delivering a comprehensive Fable-level real-world experience. CLSA believed post-training will drive short-term progress in Z.AI's models, while architectural upgrades will prepare for the next round of pre-training scale expansion. CLSA reiterated its Outperform rating on Z.AI, with a TP of HKD2,061. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |