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JPM: Property Developers Enter Earnings Upcycle; Developers Offer Less Certainty Than Landlords in Near Term
2026-07-17 11:11:13
After two to three years of an earnings downcycle for property stocks, the upcoming results releases from July to November (mostly interim results, though some full-year results are also included) are expected to mark the start of a multi-year earnings upcycle, JPMorgan said in a report.

The broker forecast core net profit growth of 9% YoY and DPS growth of 2%-3% YoY, mainly driven by improving margins in Hong Kong property development, partial stabilization in rental income, and lower financing costs.

In the near term, the broker foresaw the sector to remain heavily influenced by rapidly changing narratives surrounding interest rate trends. In stock selection, the broker preferred companies that: first, have lower sensitivity to interest rates; second, are expected to see earnings recovery over the next two to three years; third, are actively recycling capital; and fourth, have shown improving operating data in their core segments.

As overhangs over capital outflow controls may not be fully eliminated in the short term, the broker believed property developers offer less certainty than landlords in the near term. Its top picks among landlord stocks were LINK REIT (00823.HK), Hongkong Land and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK); its top pick among developers was SHK PPT (00016.HK). Its preferred conglomerates are CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) and Jardine Matheson.

Stock | Investment Rating | TP
CK ASSET (01113.HK) | Overweight | HKD52
HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) | Neutral | HKD27
NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) | Neutral | HKD6.8
SINO LAND (00083.HK) | Overweight | HKD12.5
SHK PPT (00016.HK) | Overweight | HKD140
HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK) | Overweight | HKD12
SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) | Overweight | HKD30
CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) | Overweight | HKD79
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AASTOCKS Financial News
Website: www.aastocks.com