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M Stanley Axes XIAOMI-W TP by 29% to HKD32 on Weak EV Sales, Chip Inflation Headwinds
2026-07-09 14:01:47
Morgan Stanley issued a report acknowledging that XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) is battling short-term headwinds, including meager sales in EV industry and rising chip costs (chip inflation), which are affecting smartphone shipments and margins.

The broker upheld its long-term positive view, citing the "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem strategy and continued AI investments, but axed its TP by 28.9% from HKD45 to HKD32 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

Morgan Stanley estimated XIAOMI-W's EV deliveries in 1H26 at around 180,000 units, representing only about 33% of its full-year target. Even considering new model launches in 2H, the broker viewed it will still be difficult to achieve the annual delivery target. As a result, the broker lowered its 2026 EV delivery forecast from 580,000 units to 500,000 units, and its 2027 forecast from 750,000 units to 700,000 units.

The broker noted that the market remains cautious on smartphone shipment and margin trends, but even with further downward revisions to smartphone shipment forecasts, the impact of intrinsic value is limited at only RMB21 billion in its SOTP valuation.

Morgan Stanley considered the market is completely overlooking XIAOMI-W's AI value, conservatively estimating its AI value at around RMB32 billion. For investors with a 12-18 month horizon, the broker believed the current level offers an attractive entry point. For investors with only a 3-6 month horizon, a better entry point may emerge in 3-4Q26.
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AASTOCKS Financial News
Website: www.aastocks.com