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Fitch Cuts Forecast for CN New Home Sales in 2026, Expects Decline to Deepen to 11-13%
2026-06-30 11:51:53
Fitch Ratings revised down its forecast for China's newly built commercial residential property sales in 2026 from the previous expected decline of 7-8% to a decline of 11-13%, in wake of persistent weakness in lower-tier cities, which continued to offset the recovery momentum in a small number of core cities, while most home-buying demand shifted to secondary home transactions.

Fitch expected most rated property developers will still need time to digest legacy land reserves, with margins remaining squeezed in 2026 and only gradually improving over the next few years. Regarding SOE developers, except for YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK), the SOE developers rated by Fitch and disclosing monthly data all recorded sales growth in 5M26.
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