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2026-06-22 11:54:52 G Sachs said in a report that production disruptions in the Middle East have prolonged tightness in the aluminum market, and even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply pressures are unlikely to ease immediately. Since its last update, industry feedback and corporate disclosures indicate that capacity restoration in the Middle East has progressed more slowly than the bank previously assumed. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the announced temporary agreement, smelters will not be able to return to full capacity immediately, as damaged electrolytic cells require repairs and curtailed capacity must be restarted gradually. As a result, the bank raised its forecast for the average LME aluminum price in the third quarter of 2026 and for 2027 to USD3,300 per tonne and USD2,950 per tonne, respectively, from its previous estimates of USD3,200 per tonne and USD2,750 per tonne. However, these forecasts remain below forward prices of USD3,400 per tonne and USD3,250 per tonne, as stronger supply growth from Indonesia and China, driven by high smelter profit margins, supports the bank癒礎s unchanged mid-term bearish view. This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |