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Jefferies: CN Banks to See Steady Improvement This Yr; BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK), BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) Favored
2026-05-14 12:02:12
Jefferies issued a research report expecting Chinese banking sector to deliver steady earnings improvement in 2026 amid a mild macro recovery and low policy swings. The broker forecast that the narrowing of NIM will slacken, which supports a return to growth in NII. It expected PPOP of the covered banks to fully recover in 2026, with earnings hiking approximately 3.4% YoY.

Capital inflows will continue to support the Chinese banking sector, the report said. In particular, under new accounting standards, insurance companies have stronger incentives to increase allocation to high-yield equities and classify them into FVOCI accounts, and are expected to become persistent and stable marginal buyers.

The broker believed the sector offers selective attractiveness, favoring stocks with sustained capital inflows and improving earnings visibility. Its top picks are H-share and A-share leaders BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ), both being rated Buy.

Jefferies listed ratings and TPs for Chinese banks:

Company and Stock Code | Rating | TP
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ICBC (01398.HK) | Buy | HKD8.5
ICBC (601398.SH) | Buy | RMB8.7
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ABC (01288.HK) | Hold | HKD6.6
AGRICULTURAL BANK (601288.SH) | Hold | RMB7.4
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BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) | Buy | HKD6.3
BANK OF CHINA (601988.SH) | Buy | RMB7.4
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CCB (00939.HK) | Buy | HKD10.6
CCB (601939.SH) | Buy | RMB11.9
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BANKCOMM (03328.HK) | Buy | HKD8.5
BANKCOMM (601328.SH) | Buy | RMB8.5
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PSBC (01658.HK) | Hold | HKD5.1
PSBC (601658.SH) | Hold | RMB5.3
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CM BANK (03968.HK) | Buy | HKD55.0
CMB (600036.SH) | Buy | RMB51.0
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MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) | Hold | HKD4.1
MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH) | Hold | RMB4.2
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PING AN BANK (000001.SZ) | Buy | RMB13.8
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BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) | Buy | RMB42.1
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