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JPM Keeps Neutral on MEITUAN-W (03690.HK); LT Food Delivery Outlook Highly Uncertain
2026-04-10 09:51:09
Signals from Chinese authorities to curtail subsidy wars in food delivery sparked investor discussions about the prospects of MEITUAN-W (03690.HK), JP Morgan said in a research report. The broker assumed regulatory catalysts do exist, but there is high uncertainty over the long-term profit pool of food delivery, and the current share price of MEITUAN-W does not provide a sufficient margin of safety. The broker set a TP of HKD85 and maintained a Neutral rating.

The report noted that the market is assessing MEITUAN-W's outlook based on market share. However, after deep-dive analysis, the broker found that market share and profit are not directly proportional, and may even be inversely proportional. MEITUAN-W's food delivery profitability primarily hinges on order quality rather than order volume. The company can only generate profits from orders with an average ticket size above RMB30, while orders below RMB30 would result in structural losses on any platform. Assuming MEITUAN-W's overall market share declines from 75% to 50%, operating profit per order would actually be higher than in a scenario where market share stands at 65%, as loss-making orders would reduce.
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