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M Stanley: Capacity Integration Benefits Industry Leaders CHALCO, CHINAHONGQIAO
2025-12-29 10:22:15
Last Friday (26th), China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released an article titled "Vigorously Promote the Optimization and Enhancement of Traditional Industries", mentioning the strengthening of management and optimization of the alumina and copper smelting industries, and encouraging large backbone enterprises in alumina and copper smelting to implement M&As, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Alumina prices continued to be squeezed by increased supply, with current built capacity reaching 110 million tons and utilization at 84%, while China's demand basically reached its limit. The broker believed the new policy may restrict the planning of additional alumina capacity and expected capacity integration to benefit industry leaders such as CHALCO (02600.HK) and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK). However, a large amount of approved capacity in the pipeline may still exert pressure on alumina prices in 2026.

Meanwhile, TC/ RC prices and long-term contract concentrate volumes may imply a reduction in refined copper production in 2026. These factors, combined with relatively stable demand, should support copper prices at high levels, favoring ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK), CMOC (03993.HK), MMG (01208.HK), and JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK).
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