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2025-12-11 16:31:14 Global growth in 2025 will excel Nomura's expectations, with strong growth momentum expected to continue into 2026, Nomura's research report indicated. The global economy, particularly the US, has displayed resilience against factors such as tariffs, policy uncertainty, and political division. Despite reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal space in most countries, the AI-led investment boom, paired with more accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, lays the foundation for strong performance in 2026. The broker forecast the US to maintain its leading growth position among developed markets, estimating a 2.4% rise in real GDP next year. The US labor market was expected to improve, driving the unemployment rate down to 4% by the end of next year. Although the broker projected inflationary pressures from tariffs to ease in 2025, core service inflation will keep the Fed cautious. Under a newer and more dovish Fed leadership, the US was foreseen to cut interest rates twice next year, each in June and September. In mainland China, given the ongoing tremendous divergence between real estate and exports, the broker expected GDP growth to slow to 4.3% in 2026, below consensus. Growth was expected to slacken to 4.1% in the first half of the year and rebound to 4.5% in the second half, mainly supported by stimulus measures to be rolled out by Beijing next spring and a lower base. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |