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| HSI1 | 25,930.03 | 0.00 | -- |
| HSCEI1 | 9,174.84 | 0.00 | -- |
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2025-11-18 12:50:30 Paul Gong, Head of China Automotive Industry Research at UBS Investment Bank, updated the growth outlook for 2026, forecasting a 6-ppt increase in EV penetration and sustained growth driven by EV exports. However, the growth rate of EV wholesale (including exports) was expected to slow from 28% in 2025 to 15% in 2026. In the short term, the industry is not foreseen to experience an upcycle, but the long-term structural growth opportunities in China's automotive sector remain robust, including domestic market share growth, overseas expansion, and premiumization. UBS remains cautious, awaiting policy clarification. UBS expects China's passenger car wholesale growth rate to slow from 11% in 2025 to 3% in 2026, with NEV growth easing from 28% to 15%. In the context of overall sales slowdown, exports and product structure upgrades may be two positive factors. Gong pointed out that the 5% purchase tax to be levied from 2026 to 2027 was confirmed by the Chinese government years ago, and the recent tightening of technical requirements indicates that this may proceed as planned. Based on the expiration of EV subsidies at the end of 2022, UBS believes this will not reverse the electrification trend. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |