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Nomura Keeps Alibaba (BABA.US) TP at US$215, Reiterates Buy Rating
2025-11-17 11:58:13
The US government accused BABA-W (09988.HK) of providing technical support to the Chinese military for targeting objectives within the US, Nomura's research report quoted a November 15 report by the Financial Times, which cited an unpublished memorandum from the US Department of Homeland Security. The company refuted these allegations, stating they are completely unfounded.

Nomura noted that this is not the first time the US government has accused Chinese tech giants of providing various forms of support to the Chinese government or military. The broker viewed that if the US fails to provide strong evidence to justify its actions, taking any measures against such a purely private and high-profile company like Alibaba could have profound implications and potentially undermine the agreements recently reached by the leaders of the two countries.

Alibaba is expected to announce its September quarterly results on November 25, 2025, the broker mentioned, anticipating largely no surprise about the September quarterly print.

Regarding capex on AI cloud, Nomura believed Alibaba is in a more advantageous position than TENCENT (00700.HK)(TCEHY.US), as it has foresightedly established a more robust AI chip supply chain through domestic and foreign channels. Therefore, Nomura forecast its AI capex in the September quarter will spike 83% YoY to RMB32 billion, accounting for 13% of the quarter's revenue.

Nomura maintained a Buy rating on Alibaba. Based on the SOTP valuation method, it kept its US stock (BABA.US) target price at US$215, implying a FY2027 PE of 21x.
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