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UBS Zhang Ning Expects CN Full-Yr GDP Growth at 4.8-4.9%, Predicts PBOC to Cut Interest Rates by 10 bps in 4Q
2025-10-24 11:48:53 The Fourth Plenary Session concluded yesterday (23rd), briefly summarizing the key strategic goals and macro themes of the "15th Five-Year Plan". UBS' China economist Zhang Ning stated that the "15th Five-Year Plan" reaffirms the Chinese government's goal to raise per capita GDP to the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, as previously expected. UBS lately estimated this year's figure at USD14,000, requiring a CAGR of 6-8% in per capita GDP calculated in USD terms, which suggested that nominal GDP growth needs to remain strong over the next decade, and the RMB exchange rate needs to remain stable or strengthen. Regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan", UBS foresaw the "implicit" GDP growth target to slacken but remain robust, estimated between 4.5-5%. Meanwhile, the new five-year plan will focus on high-quality development, considerably advancing technological self-reliance, and continuously improving people's living standards. The investment bank still expected the 4Q GDP growth rate to further slow to around 4% YoY, with the full-year GDP growth rate possibly between 4.8% and 4.9%. UBS still expected the central bank to lower policy rates by 20 bps over the next 3-4 quarters, possibly by 10 bps as early as 4Q25. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |