GO
| HSI1 | 25,889.48 | -400.84 | 490.37B |
| HSCEI1 | 9,222.54 | -135.78 | 194.82B |
| Back Zoom + Zoom - Block Traded | |
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2025-10-13 15:35:32 Base case prediction: Scenario 1 assumes verbal escalation between China and the US, resetting expectations. The US doesn't slap a 100% tariff, while China formally but selectively enforces certain rare earth control measures to ensure overall supply chain stability. -------------------------------------- Scenarios 2-4 are hypothetical scenarios not belonging to Morgan Stanley's base case prediction: Scenario 2 assumes temporary tactical escalation. Both China and the US implement proposed policies but eventually return to the status quo "equilibrium" after finding the economic costs too high. -------------------------------------- Scenario 3 assumes persistent escalation and pushing toward decoupling. The US levies the 100% tariff and/ or further 232 tariffs, while China responds by further tightening rare earth controls. -------------------------------------- Scenario 4 assumes verbal escalation, but a way for an agreement to be paved. The tough rhetoric becomes a catalyst for restarting negotiations, prompting China and the US to announce a framework agreement that covers various non-tariff-related issues. ~ AAStocks Financial News Web Site: www.aastocks.com | |