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| HSCEI1 | 9,472.35 | +15.83 | 129.31B |
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2025-09-18 16:08:26 The target range for the US federal funds rate has been reduced by 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%, in line with the market consensus. According to a research report from China Galaxy Securities, the September dot plot showed the median for rate cuts in 2025 rising from two in June to three, with one cut each in 2026 and 2027, while the long-term neutral rate stayed at 3%. The market initially read this pattern as a clear dovish signal, but in reality, only 10 of the 19 committee members supported three or more cuts, while the other nine leaned toward two or fewer, almost a 50-50 split. In other words, the dovish signal from the median was more a statistical artifact than a true consensus. Overall, the Fed majority still favored modest easing, maintaining flexibility with a meeting-by-meeting approach rather than front-loading aggressive cuts. When compared with June, the 2026 US GDP growth forecast was revised up by 0.2 ppts, the unemployment rate was reduced by 0.1 ppt, and the PCE inflation estimate was marginally lifted by 0.2 ppts, suggesting the Fed believed appropriate early cuts could help support growth and stabilize jobs. ~ AAStocks Financial News Web Site: www.aastocks.com | |