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2025-01-23 09:40:46 UBS released a research report forecasting a 27% YoY drop in Chinese developers' 2024 earnings, a sharper decline than the 22% decrease in 1H24, mainly due to the drop in China's property prices in 3Q24. Specifically, the broker estimated C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK) to record smallest drop in profit, which is expected to fall 2% YoY, followed by CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK), CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) and LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK), with profit declines of 8%/ 18%/ 23%/ 29%/ 38% respectively. UBS expected most Chinese developers to book more impairments in 2H24 due to lower property prices. As for property management and service providers, UBS anticipated that average earnings growth in 2024 will narrow from 16% in 1H24 to 11% for the whole 2024, with BEKE-W (02423.HK)/ GREENTOWN MGMT (09979.HK) predicted to see a 21%/ 13% drop in 2024 earnings. Among Chinese managers, UBS projected CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK) to perform the best, with 2024 earnings growing 17% YoY, followed by GREENTOWN SER (02869.HK) with a 12% increase, as well as CHINA OVS PPT (02669.HK) and POLY PPT SER (06049.HK). UBS dropped its target prices for CHINA RES LAND/ BEKE-W to $37/ $58.9. The broker also cut its target price for LONGFOR GROUP to $10.3 from $11, and kept its target price for CHINA OVERSEAS at $12.5. The latest ratings and target prices of the sector are listed in a separate table. ~ AAStocks Financial News Web Site: www.aastocks.com | |