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Jefferies Raises HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK) TP to $100, Rating Hold
2024-04-24 14:33:41
In its report, Jefferies said that its U.S. economics team revised its forecast for the number of Fed rate cuts from four to one this year. For banks in Singapore and Hong Kong, NIMs were expected to be modest QoQ in 1Q24, and the expected delay in rate cuts to November-December will limit the downside risk to NIMs in 2H24. NIIs were mixed, with DBS and UOB posting strong momentum into 1Q24, thanks in part to Citi integration. BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) benefited from an enhanced product mix in the ASEAN region, which diversified its revenue streams.

Both Singapore and Hong Kong banks had no material credit exposures in 1Q24, and Singapore banks' strong asset quality positioned them well as high interest rates persisted for an extended period, according to the report. BOC HONG KONG minimized its exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) in Mainland China and had limited residential credit risk, unless state-owned real estate companies default.

Jefferies preferred international banks over local banks in Hong Kong. Although HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK) may catch up in the short term with buybacks, the broker remained hesitant on its local CRE exposure. BOC HONG KONG's local CRE exposure is mainly related to large developers, and its regional strategy will drive more growth in the medium term.

Jefferies raised its target price on HANG SENG BANK from $92 to $100 with a Hold rating, and gave BOC HONG KONG TP of $26.5 with a Buy rating.
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